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TrendForce’s latest research indicates that U.S. reciprocal tariffs are likely to drive TV brands to pass rising costs onto consumers through higher retail prices in the second half of 2025, further weakening consumer spending momentum. Meanwhile, China’s “trade-in” subsidy program in late 2024 had already pulled forward some demand, and despite the program’s extension into 2025, it is unlikely to stimulate additional purchases. Consequently, TrendForce projects global TV shipments in 2025 to decline by 0.7% YoY to 196.44 million units.
TrendForce’s latest research reveals that although the U.S. has granted a 90-day grace period before implementing reciprocal tariffs—offering temporary relief for notebook brands—the broader market remains clouded by policy and economic uncertainty. Brands began frontloading inventory in late 2024, pushing Q4 shipment growth to 5.1%, with 1Q25 seeing a 7.2% YoY increase.
TrendForce reports that the U.S. began implementing reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, based largely on trade deficits. Consequently, Asia—particularly Southeast Asia, a key hub for the consumer electronics supply chain—has been significantly impacted. The display industry now faces potential tariffs on optical films and AMOLED organic light-emitting materials, which may drive up material costs. Meanwhile, end-user demand could weaken, and prices for finished products may rise.
On April 2nd, the U.S. announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs, followed by a provision allowing exemption for goods with more than 20% “U.S. value”. TrendForce’s latest observations reveal that the lack of macroeconomic improvement since 2024, coupled with the inflationary and recessionary risks posed by these new tariffs, has prompted a downward revision of the 2025 shipment outlook for several end-device markets—including AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks.
TrendForce reports that global smartphone production in the last quarter of 2024 reached 334.5 million units, reflecting a 9.2% QoQ increase, driven by Apple’s peak production season and consumer subsidies from local Chinese governments. While Apple expanded production with the launch of new models, Samsung faced production declines due to intensified competition in emerging markets.
